UC provides road map to reopen Ohio

Ohio will be able to meet its demand for critical care from COVID-19 with minimal relaxation of its social-distancing policies, according to a new public health policy brief released Wednesday by the University of Cincinnati.

But significant relaxation of social distancing policies could require the state to enact a new round of temporary closures after just six weeks, according to UC’s Geospatial Health Advising Group.

“There could be more resistance to going back to stricter social distancing approaches. That’s why it’s important to start telling people now what could happen,” said Diego Cuadros, assistant professor of geography in UC’s College of Arts and Sciences.

Critical care across much of rural Ohio will reach capacity far sooner if social-distancing is relaxed significantly, according to UC’s analysis. The researchers recommend increasing the capacity of critical care in these counties to address the crisis.

“This provides evidence confirmation that the decisions the state is making are the right ones with a phased reopening,” said Neil MacKinnon, co-author and dean of UC’s College of Pharmacy.

“A lot of people would like everything to reopen, but slow relaxation of restrictions will not create a burden on hospitals or adversely affect death rates.”

UC researchers created an interactive map of Ohio outlining the spread of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths under different social-distancing scenarios.

Cuadros said it’s difficult to say which social-distancing measures have proven most effective at reducing the infection rates. Researchers around the world are studying that now, he said. Ohio and other states implemented widespread changes, from closing schools and businesses to postponing or canceling public events and issuing stay-at-home orders.

Now the first of those states have lifted their restrictions with many others like Ohio planning gradual reopenings.

“A very strict lockdown is not going to be sustainable. There will be an economic impact that would be difficult to sustain,” Cuadros said. “But we have to be aware that the virus is still here and it’s not going anywhere. When interventions are lifted, the virus will take off again.”

If Ohio’s current interventions stay in place through June 30, 55 of the state’s 88 counties will have fewer than 10 deaths from COVID-19. Under moderate reopening, just 25 counties will have fewer than 10 deaths while 27 counties will have more than 50 deaths by June 30. With significant relaxation of social distancing, 84 of Ohio’s 88 counties will have more than 10 deaths by June 30. Likewise, 50 counties will have more than 50 deaths and 20 counties will have more than 200 deaths.

Like Ohio’s population, the state’s critical care services are distributed in varying densities. Rural counties will reach critical care capacity sooner than more populated counties. UC recommends addressing ICU capacity in some of these counties to provide an effective intermittent social-distancing approach across Ohio.

UC’s Geospatial Health Advising Group plans to expand its projections nationwide and in Canada as well.

“Just because people want to go back to normal doesn’t mean it’s going to happen,” he said. “We can’t eliminate risk, but we can reduce it.”

Featured image at top: Cincinnati celebrates the Blink light festival that illuminates the skyline. Photo/Joseph Fuqua II/UC Creative + Brand