Focus On….Election 2004: A View From a Professor & Political Strategist

By: Al Tuchfarber

What are the major lessons of the 2004 elections? As an academic political scientist who has also participated in many political campaigns as a strategist, the lessons can be summarized under three C’s - - celebrations, catastrophes, and cautions.

Celebrations for America

• Let’s celebrate the huge increase in voter turnout, including big increases among all age groups, even young adults.
• Let’s celebrate the fact that we knew the winner within a few hours after the polls closed.
• Let’s celebrate the fact that there were no major voting irregularities or any major post-election involvement by the courts in the vote counting.
• Let’s celebrate the gracious and genuine post-election speeches by Senator Kerry and President Bush.

Catastrophes for the Democrats

• From a strategic standpoint, the biggest catastrophe for the Democrats was not that Bush and the Republicans won but that the demographic group on which they had been basing their hope for a future return to majority status (Latinos) moved from being a core Democratic constituency to a swing group. Good for Hispanic political clout; terrible for the
• Furthermore, although the Kerry loss was hard to take, a more lasting catastrophe is the emergence of solid control of the House by the Republicans (national vote: 51% vs. 47%) and at least near term control of the Senate.
• Also of great concern to the Democrats should be their declining strength in the upper-Midwest. Should Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota join the southern, plains, and mountain states and Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana in the red state column, Democratic victories could become isolated to the east and west coasts.

Cautions for All

• The surprising and sweeping size of the Republican victories encourages elephantine celebrations, but caution should be the order of the day. Republican hubris after the 1994 Gingrich-led tidal wave helped create a backlash and President Clinton’s re-election in 1996. Hubris and over-reaching should be verboten.
• Republicans should also caution each other that even majority parties can lose presidential elections. If Republicans move beyond the moderately conservative mainstream of American politics, 2008 to 2016 could see a President Hillary Clinton or Evan Bayh. Look back to five Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan victories during an era of strong Democratic majority status from 1952 to 1980.
• Finally, a caution for the Democrats. If they want to reconnect with America, they must jettison the “hate America” crowd – e.g., Michael Moore. Neither party needs his ilk or other hate mongers like Pat Buchanan, Alan Keys, or George Soros.

A time for celebration, reassessment, and reflection. Together we move forward.