UC Geographers Present Research on Greenhouse Gasses, Climate Change and More

University of Cincinnati geography faculty members and graduate students will present research at the April 9-13 national meeting of the Association of American Geographers.

The UC research presentations will focus such topics as carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in urban ecosystems; ice flow velocity on the Antarctic Peninsula from 1986-2012; temperatures over thaw lakes in Alaska; water management in Las Vegas, Nev.; determinants for U.S. plant closures in Mexico; day labor halls and more.

Below is a round up on the UC research to be presented.

CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION IN URBAN ECOSYSTEMS

Urban areas may have high carbon densities in both above-ground and below-ground fractions, leading to questions about

whether urban green spaces can serve as sinks for carbon dioxide emissions.

The researchers measured organic carbon stocks in soils along a chronosequence of two types of urban turfgrass ecosystems: ornamental lawns and athletic fields. They also measured nitrous oxide (N2O; 298 times the global warming potential of CO2) emission rates from each type of lawn for one year, and estimated indirect CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption for lawn maintenance, fertilizer production, and irrigation. They found that ornamental lawns could sequester carbon at a rate of approximately 140 g C m-2 yr-1, but that athletic fields did not sequester carbon  due to frequent surface restoration. Nitrous oxide emissions were approximately 0.2 g N m-2 yr-1 from both types of lawns, similar to agricultural N2O emission rates from the same region. In terms of total global warming potential, direct N2O emissions were between 9-28 percent of carbon uptake observed in ornamental lawns. Conservatively managed ornamental lawns may be able to act as a positive sink for CO2, but intensive management practices such as frequent application of fertilizers, irrigation, and fuel consumption from mowing and leaf blowing all decrease the likelihood that urban turfgrass can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in cities. Current work is focused on whether unirrigated and unfertilized urban soils can absorb CO2 at rates similar to managed lawns without large indirect emissions of CO2 and direct emissions of N2O and methane.

UC presenters:

Amy Townsend-Small, University of Cincinnati

Rebecca Ransohoff, University of Cincinnati

Lily Soderlund, University of Cincinnati

Co-author:

Claudia Czimczik, University of California, Irvine

ANALYSIS OF ICE-FLOW VELOCITY VARIATIONS ON THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA DURING 1986-2012

The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced dramatic temperature rise and ice-shelf collapses in the context of global climate change. Monitoring the ice-flow dynamics of outlet glaciers and ice shelves on Antarctic Peninsula is useful for understanding their responses to regional and global climate changes. In this study,

the researchers derived and examined the ice-surface velocity on the Antarctic Peninsula during the period from 1986 to 2012.

Multi-sensor satellite images, including Landsat TM, ETM+, ASTER and Radarsat-1 SAR images were used to for image time series, for detecting ice-flow velocity variation in different time intervals. The multi-scale hierarchical image matching method was implemented to compute the ice-surface velocity given any bi-temporal image pairs from sequential image time series. The spurious matches/velocities were filtered out by a series of statistically based operations. We generated ice-surface velocity maps for nine time intervals. The spatio-temporal variability of ice-flow velocity between these nine time intervals have been examined and analyzed. The fastest ice flows are distributed at the front of the ice shelf and near the grounding line of outlet glaciers draining into the ice shelf. The analysis results suggest that the ice flow on the Larsen B Ice Shelf and the ice streams draining into this ice shelf have accelerated drastically in recent years, especially after the ice shelf disintegration event, while the ice motion of the Larsen C Ice Shelf was quite stable.

UC presenters:

Shujie Wang, University of Cincinnati

Hongxing Liu, University of Cincinnati

Co-authors:

Xia Li, Sun Yat-sen University

Lei Wang, Louisiana State University

ASSIMILATION OF MULTI-SENSOR, MULTI-SCALE THERMAL IMAGES OVER THAW LAKES IN NORTH ALASKA

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing provides an effective tool for mapping land and water surface temperature. Unfortunately, no single satellite system provides the temporally frequent thermal measurements at high spatial resolution. Polar orbiting satellite systems like MODIS provide daily thermal data at a moderate spatial resolution (1 km). Landsat and ASTER satellite systems can acquire thermal data at relatively high spatial resolution (60 m or 120 m for Landsat, 90 m for ASTER) but with temporally infrequent revisit cycle (16 days). This paper presents a data assimilation technique based on spatio-temporal cokriging algorithm.

This technique fuses thermal observations from multiple satellite platforms with different revisit frequency and different spatial resolutions to derive hourly/daily surface temperature

and emissivity at a high spatial resolution (30 m). This technique has been applied to assimilate thermal images from ASTER and Landsat TM sensors with those from MODIS sensor over thaw lakes in  north Alaska. The assimilation result from spatial-temporal cokriging algorithm is compared with the heuristic Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) based spatio-temporal interpolation method.

UC presenters:

Bo Yang, University of Cincinnati

Hongxing Liu, University of Cincinnati

Emily Lei Kang, University of Cincinnati

Quisheng Wu, University of Cincinnati

HINTERLAND HYDROLOGY: MAPPING THE MEDICINAL TRAIL COMMUNITY IN NORTHWESTERN BELIZE

The Medicinal Trail site, covering an area approximately one kilometer in diameter, is a dispersed hinterland community located near the major ancient Maya site of La Milpa in northwestern Belize. Occupied primarily during the Classic Period (AD 250-900), this terraced community consists of at least three closely related formal courtyard groups, a number of informal mound clusters, and multiple landscape modifications including terraces, depressions and linear features. These plaster-paved surface features served to direct water into the natural depressions, or reservoirs, which served as open catchment basins partially designed to collect wet season rainfall and hold sporadic surface runoff or water from more permanent canalized surfaces.

Two years of total station mapping at the site have revealed distinct patterns of settlement selection and water management practices

. Survey and mapping have revealed a settlement pattern in which, (a) the largest, and most complex household groups are associated with ridge tops, (b) possible artificial drainages and reservoirs are associated with dense settlement, and (c) numerous terraces are located on the slopes of the ridges, adjacent to some of the drainage features. Mapping data collection will continue in future seasons—as will interpretation of the hydraulic landscape—as we seek gain a clearer understanding of the complex interrelationship between water and people within this peripheral settlement.

UC presenter:

Jeff Brewer, University of Cincinnati

Co-author:

David Hyde: Western State Colorado University

EVALUATION OF SMOS SOIL-MOISTURE PRODUCTS OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES

Estimation of soil moisture can be acquired by either in situ soil moisture instruments (sensors), by atmospheric and hydrologic models or by remote-sensing technology. Among the remote-sensing systems, the passive-microwave remote sensors are able to penetrate clouds and operate in day and night, providing more reliable and accurate measurements on soil moisture due to their sensitivity to the effect of moisture content on the dielectric constant and hence the emissivity of the soil. Particularly, the launch of the European Space Agency (ESA) Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite with a L-band (1.4 GHz) microwave radiometer onboard in 2009 has provided the first-ever dedicated global near-surface soil moisture data, with an average revisit frequency of three days. Since SMOS is the first L-band passive microwave system in operation, it is very important to evaluate the SMOS products to ensure its data quality before widespread utilization of the data for scientific research. For this study, the researchers utilize the seven in situ soil moisture sensor networks, with a total of more than 600 stations, to evaluate the SMOS soil moisture products from January 2010-December 2012 over the contiguous United States. The spatial pattern of the measurement error has been examined, and factors that potentially influence the performance of SMOS soil moisture retrievals are also analyzed.

UC presenters:

Qiusheng Wu, University of Cincinnati

Hongxing Liu, University of Cincinnati

TOTAL WATER MANAGEMENT IN A SEMI-ARID, URBANIZED WATERSHED: A CASE STUDY OF LAS VEGAS

Climate change, land use change and population growth are fundamental factors affecting future hydrologic conditions in streams, especially in arid regions with scarce water resources. Located in the arid southwest, Las Vegas is one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas of the country. In the past 30 years, because of climate and land-use changes, it has experienced a decrease in clean-water supply but an increase in water demand. To alleviate some of these problems, large amounts of water has been pumped into the watershed from different outside sources, such as Lake Mead, and the urban wastewater is treated and returned back to the reservoir, which can then be withdrawn for human consumption. However, in the face of continued global warming and urbanization in the watershed, long-term planning for sustainable water management is critical.

This research provides a comprehensive analysis incorporating hydrologic modeling, population projection, land-use change modeling, and water-management policies to examine the total water balance in the arid urbanized Las Vegas Wash Watershed under various scenarios of climate regime, population growth, land-use change, and total water management for the year 2050. The results of the analyses include: (i) a prediction of the hydrologic conditions in the watershed, (ii) an estimate of the total discharge of the Las Vegas Wash to Lake Mead, (iii) potential amounts of return flow credits, (iv) an estimate of the future water demands, and (v) the total water balance in the Las Vegas Valley by 2050.

UC presenters:

Thushara Ranatunga, University of Cincinnati

Susanna Tong, University of Cincinnati

Yu Sen, University of Cincinnati

Co-author:

Jeff Yang, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

ASSESSMENT OF THE BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGE SCENARIOS OF THE LAS VEGAS WASH WATERSHED

Located within the Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watershed in Southern Nevada is the Las Vegas metropolitan area, one of the fastest growing urban areas in the United States. Since the surface runoff from urban areas is often contaminated, the water quality in LVW is anticipated to deteriorate as population growth and urbanization continues. Besides, due to the hot and arid desert environment, the LVW watershed has very limited precipitation. Any future climate change resulted from global warming will undoubtedly magnify the water shortage problem, not only in providing clean water supply to the city, but also in diluting the pollutants. Sustainable water resource management and urban development has therefore become one of the key challenges to the local government. In order to alleviate the potential water pollution problems in LVW, the use of Best Management Practices (BMPs) may be helpful.

This paper presents a case study using LVW watershed as a study area and SUSTAIN (System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis INtegration) as a decision support system to model the hydrologic processes and assess the optimal options, locations, and costs of BMPs. The main objectives are (1) to investigate the hydrologic and water quality impacts of climate and land use changes in the rapidly urbanizing and arid environment of LVW, and (2) to determine the costs, environmental benefits, and efficacy of different BMPs in reducing surface flows and contaminants under various future climate and land use change regimes. The results will facilitate the development of appropriate water management policies.

UC presenters:

Susanna Tong, University of Cincinnati

Yu Sun, University of Cincinnati

ASSESSMENT OF THE HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF VEGETATION IN A DROUGHTY WATERSHED: A CASE STUDY IN LOWER VIRGIN WATERSHED

Hydrological processes in wooded ecosystems are not static. Land-cover change resulting from vegetation decline, biogeographic shifts corresponding to climate change, deforestation and other stressors will likely impact the quantity and quality of water. This paper focuses on how vegetation and land use influence hydrology in a droughty environment. The study area is the Lower Virgin River Watershed in junction area of Nevada, Utah and Arizona, which is the lower branch of the Virgin River (the Unique Hydrologic Unit code number (HUC) is 15010010). This area has simple land cover structure, which is mainly covered by vegetation. The vegetation change of Lower Virgin Watershed, especially deforestation, impacts the hydrology of Lower Virgin River and Lake Mead. Moreover, in some areas of the watershed, drought conditions persist and high fire potential decreasing water supplies. It also locates in the north of Lake Mead and discharges into Lake Mead. Lake Mead is indispensable to life in Las Vegas. However, in previous years, the water storage of the river and Lake Mead is declining, which conflicts with high demand of water.

In this study, vegetation is considered as influential factor to do the watershed hydrology simulation of Lower Virgin Area. The objectives of this study are: 1. Previously, many hydrological models analyzed and simulated the watershed hydrology but few of them consider the rule and interactions within a droughty ecosystem. This study analyze the rules and interactions of the influential factors in the droughty environment and figure out how the vegetation inflation factor affects the hydrology of Lower Virgin River and water quantity of Lake Mead. 2. Understanding the influence of Vegetation and land use on water resource, the simulation results of this study can be considered as the reference information for the government departments and relative agencies to perform the better land use management and water management and planning to match the environmental conditions.

UC presenters:

Heyin Chen, University of Cincinnati

Tak Yung Tong, University of Cincinnati

Heng Yang, University of Cincinnati

Jeff Yang, University of Cincinnati

Li Yuan, University of Cincinnati

INTEGRATING STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND GIS TO EVALUATE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN SUSTAINABLE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLANNING

As the largest tributary of the Mississippi River, the Ohio River (OR) flows within the Ohio River Basin (ORB), composed by multiple watersheds with a variety of ecosystems. Ecosystems may provide several ecosystem services (ES) (e.g. water purification) important for sustainable watershed management (SWM). Measured water quality parameters revealed that the OR main stem is approximately 50 percent impaired for contact recreational use. In addition, the river carries a high nitrogen load and significantly contributes to the anoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. This study aims at addressing for the ORB the following questions: (1) Does an increased supply of ES have the potential to contribute to SWM? (2) At which spatial extent? and (3) How cost-effective would alternative watershed management policies with increased ES supply be? The approach includes: (1) Generating land use (LU) change scenarios based on conservation and watershed management plans; (2) Assessing final ES by LU categories at various scales; (3) Calculating and spatially representing monetary and non-monetary ES values over time using the InVEST GIS tool; (4) Evaluating results taking relative restorability and relative vulnerability into account; and (5) Maximizing ES values in project plans.

A pilot SEA is launched in the Tippecanoe River watershed, located in the NW part of the ORB. It is expected that by quantifying the consequences of plan implementation for hydrologic cycle-related ES and their values, comparison of project costs, and maximizing benefits, the introduction of ES as natural capital into the decision making process will contribute to more SWM planning.

UC presenters:

Chantal Ivenso, University of Cincinnati

Susanna Tong, University of Cincinnati

Ishi Buffam, University of Cincinnati

Co-authors:

Elly H. Best, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Risk Management Research Lab (NRMRL)

Guoxiang Yang, U.S. EPA, NRMRL, ORISE

AN ANALYSIS OF STAKEHOLDERS IN THE MARCELLUS SHALE OF PENNSYLVANIA: ACROSS SECTOR AND SCALE

Shale gas development, or "fracking," is occurring in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, a place of shared and competing interests. Recently this activity has impacted the region's political economy compelling individuals and groups to deliberate change. This research pertains to decision-making about natural resources and applies a stakeholder matrix to enhance the study's data generation and analysis. The term stakeholder defines individuals or groups who are directly or indirectly influenced or affected by fracking. Data was gathered from 114 audio-recorded public statements, 30 face-to-face interviews, and a variety of media such as blogs and municipal public meetings from 2008 to 2010. This information was placed in the appropriate cells of the matrix that represent either the government, private, or public sector by column, and the local to global scale by row. Next, the data was compared and contrasted across, within, and between sectors and scale. The results display an extensive array of stakeholders with copious and varying interests, and unexpected relationships regarding fracking in Pennsylvania. For example, there are stakeholders perceived as omitted from decision-making such as the "well drillers;" interests ranging from stargazing to the international distribution of liquid natural gas; and, relationships such as a collaboration between a pipeline company and bicycle trail association. The stakeholder matrix proves itself a useful tool for researchers, as well as governments, businesses, and public organizations regarding natural resource development. It enhances decision-making and policy outcome by capturing a comprehensive list of stakeholders, uncovering their varied interests, and revealing relationships otherwise left unknown.

UC presenter:

Deborah Kittner, University of Cincinnati

DETECTING SPATIAL PATTERNS OF DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION IN OLDER ADULTS USING ORAL-SCREENING DATA

ElderSmile is an oral health focused, community-based program providing screening, prevention and treatment services to older adults in northern Manhattan and adjacent communities. Through this program, hundreds of senior participants have been screened for dental caries, tooth loss, periodontitis and other undesirable oral health outcomes. In addition to indicators of oral health, more recently (since 2010) data has been collected related to diabetes and hypertension, two common chronic illnesses faced by older adults. These examinations are apart of an effort to reframe a person's health as an  interconnected system, and provide an additional checkpoint for updating patients on potential healthcare needs. The oral cavity has been referred to as the gateway to the body, providing dentists the unique ability to detect symptoms that may indicate other serious medical conditions, like coronary heart disease, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes.

The purpose of this study is to examine spatial patterns in oral health, glycated hemoglobin levels (an indicator for diabetes), and hypertension among different subgroups of older adults in northern Manhattan. By understanding which subgroups experience spatial clustering or dispersion, dentists can better serve this at-risk population and public health practitioners will be better able to design and target interventions, thereby reducing the harmful effects of chronic illness. Additionally, this study shows how data from oral health screenings can be utilized for broader public health surveillance.

UC presenter:

Michael Widener, University of Cincinnati

Co-authors:

Mary Northridge, New York University

Bibhas Chakraborty, Columbia University

Stephen Marshall, Columbia University

Ira Lamster, Columbia University

Sara Metcalf, University at Buffalo

QUALITATIVE GIS APPROACH TO EXPLORING ACCESS TO PHYSICAL ACTIVITY RESOURCES

Most studies that examine the equity in spatial access to parks rely on GIS and measure access strictly in terms of distance, leaving out other important determinates of access.  Moreover, a growing literature has found that environmental factors such as safety, sidewalks and traffic play a key role in determining levels of physical activity. In order to gain local knowledge of the environmental factors that inhibit access to a planned urban greenway in Northern Kentucky, this study details a qualitative GIS approach that combines GIS-based distance measures with environmental audits, digital photography and participatory methods. The qualitative GIS approach draws upon the knowledge of fifteen local adolescents (ages 12-17) and consists of the following steps: First, an environment-audit tool is used to assess the walkability of neighborhoods surrounding the greenway, while digital photography is used to document barriers to walking and biking. Second, focus groups were conducted to gain further insights into the barriers and facilitators to physical activity. Third, the audit and focus group data, along with the photos, are integrated into a GIS and overlayed with conventional GIS access buffers. Fourth, results and maps were presented to community members, greenway planners, and local policy makers. The results reveal that safety is a major potential barrier in the low-income neighborhoods surrounding the greenway. By including local perceptions of the built environment, the qualitative GIS approach provides a more realistic portrayal of access, one that includes local youth insights and reveals potential issues related to inequities in access.

UC presenter:

Michael Topmiller, University of Cincinnati

Kevin Raleigh, University of Cincinnati

Farrah Jacquez, University of Cincinnati

Co-author:

Jenni Miller-Francis, Center for Great Neighborhoods

FELONIOUS RESTRAINT: ARE FELONS IMPRISONED BY THE DAY LABOR INDUSTRY?

Resembling prisons, spaces associated with day labor employment are rigidly controlled. Within day labor temp agencies, common practice employs restrictive rules and policies that are meticulously enforced and utilized as tools for surveillance, observation, evaluation and control. Using an empirical study of workers from day labor temp agencies, this paper examines the employment experiences of recent, frequent and reformed felons within this nearly invisible industry. A discussion of the collective experiences of these felons within the day labor industry is integrated with Jürgen Habermas' concepts of lifeworld and system, illustrating 'lifeworld colonization' by the policies and practices of the day labor temp agencies. Many of these policies and practices become targets for complaints concerning violations of labor protections. While lifeworld colonization often results in either complaints or contestation, the social vulnerability of felons prevents their participation in the demands for adherence to labor protections. Further, their vulnerability permits this industry to control their working lives and forces them to navigate through environments of containment and strict control.

UC presenter:

Colleen McTague, University of Cincinnati

AN INVISIBLE INCARCERATION: HOW THE LAW ESTABLISHES VIRTUAL IMPRISONMENT OF EMPLOYEES OF TEMPORARY DAY LABOR AGENCIES IN OHIO

Legal analysis is intrinsically geographic and affords an opportunity to examine theoretical legality and its practiced enforcement in any number of social, economic or political milieu. Investigating the intersection of public law and private economic enterprise, long present in geographical thought, is expanded as the punitive turn provides new theoretical bases for research. To contribute to that burgeoning theory, the study  examined several dimensions of Temporary Day Labor Agencies in Ohio, as the temporal nature of these businesses have engendered specific laws and statutes in a few places; however, the rapid influx of these private-sector businesses has outpaced the implementation of law that protects these workers, many of whom, as felons, are effectively incarcerated as they must rely on these agencies as their sole source of employment. Thus, a necessary step is the collection, amalgamation and analysis of laws pertaining directly or indirectly to Temporary Day Labor Agencies. This hermeneutic exercise is then coupled with survey data of Day Labor employees, so as to effectively determine the legal extent of employee protection. Comparative legal analysis confirms that Ohio lacks necessary regulation for this protection, and that absence permits these agencies to act as spaces of containment and control, thereby virtually imprisoning these employees. With this research we may begin to understand actual-to-virtual carceral geography of this vulnerable employee group, and what relationship exists between the theoretical legality and actual enforcement of protection of these employees' rights and equitable treatment.

UC presenter:

Kevin Raleigh, University of Cincinnati

AN EXAMINATION OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

Many urban phenomena are embedded in transportation networks. Modeling and analyzing traffic accidents and their patterns are critical in understanding traffic safety and prevention. It is well known that traffic accidents have both temporal and spatial domains. Studies have investigated spatial aspects of traffic accidents along with environmental and socio-economic factors. The spatio-temporal structure of traffic accidents, however, is little studied. In this research, we investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of traffic accidents on a road network and examine those of influential factors with mixed models. In particular, we investigate the relationship between accidents and land use mixture index. We also explore how an analysis of traffic accidents can be enhanced by incorporating a correlation structure on a road network. Implications of this research include a better understanding of traffic accidents, network autocorrelation, and traffic safety issue.

UC presenter:

Changjoo Kim, University of Cincinnati

Co-authors:

Yongwan Chun, University of Texas at Dallas

Hyun Kim, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

DETERMINANTS OF U.S. PLANT CLOSURES IN MEXICO

Manufacturing plant closure has emerged as an important global issue of our time. Several thousand United States companies have closed manufacturing plants in the U.S., relocated production to Mexico, and subsequently closed Mexican plants with significant economic implications on both sides of the border. This research is concerned with U.S. manufacturing (maquiladora) closure in Mexico. The study analyzes more than 1,500 U.S. manufactures during 2000-2006, the most important years in terms of number of maquiladoras, employees, and plant closure. Four variables are analyzed: product manufactured, size of plant (number of employees), plant location by wage zone, and size of urban place. The results of a logistic regression analysis reveal that plant closure is significantly related to product manufactured and location by wage zone. Several low value-added product groups as exemplified by miscellaneous manufacturing-coupon sorting and wire harness assembly for example, experienced overall high rates of plant closure, but lower rates of closure in low wage places. Low rates of plant closure were experienced by several product groups (electrical appliances-refrigerators), located in the highest wage zone, underscoring the importance of geographic proximity to U.S. markets and sourcing. Neither size of urban place nor size of plant is significant as explanatory factors for plant closure. Mexico may not be indicative of causative factors related to U.S. plant closure in other low wage places due to its geographic approximate advantage, but the analysis provides insight into predictive probability of success or failure for U.S. manufactures contemplating plant relocation south of the border.

UC presenters:

Robert South, University of Cincinnati

Changjoo Kim, University of Cincinnati

AN INTEGRATED MULTILEVEL APPROACH OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT BY GRID AND MUNICIPALITY LEVEL: A CASE STUDY OF HAMILTON COUNTY

Urban growth modeling is an essential part of land use and land cover studies. This article explores the geographical, socio-economical and demographical factors of urban development at grid level and municipality level. Previous studies stress the significance of multilevel modeling in processing geographical data with spatial patterning. However, few real-world cases have been investigated. In this research, a multilevel multinomial logistic regression is used to model the urban development in Hamilton County, Ohio during periods of 1992-2000 and 2000-2010. The grid-level variables of this model include slope, elevation, distance to downtown, distance to highway, and distance to railroad, each of which has 30 meter resolution. The municipality-level variables are elevation variance, road density, population density, and number of housing units. Datasets of year 1992 and 2000 are used to estimate model parameters. Estimation result shows that municipality-level variables have significant influence on urban development. The established model is then utilized to produce an urbanization probability map of 2010. The probability map is validated against the 2010 land use map with the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistic. The area under the ROC curve is 0.816, indicating that the urban growth in Hamilton County is well-predicted by the proposed model. This study provides decision making knowledge on the impacting factors of urban development.

UC presenters:

Qiaojue Wang, University of Cincinnati

Changjoo Kim, University of Cincinnati

EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACY OF DIFFERING BEST-MANAGEMENT PRACTICES UNDER CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATIC REGIMES IN LOWER PRICE HILL, CINCINNATI

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has been developing a decision-support system, the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis INtegration (SUSTAIN), for placement of best management practices (BMPs) at strategic locations in urban watersheds to reduce non-point source pollution. Using an ArcGIS platform, SUSTAIN can be used to develop, evaluate, select, and place cost-effective BMPs in watersheds, as such it can assist stormwater management professionals in implementing BMPs.

In this study, a small watershed in Lower Price Hill, Cincinnati, Ohio, was selected as a case study because it is a highly developed area with major urban surface runoff problems. The main objective of the study is to evaluate the efficacy of

different BMPs under the current and future climatic regimes in reducing non-point source pollution. Discussed in the paper include the development of the SUSTAIN model for the study area, the adoption of optimization methods in identifying the most optimal locations for different BMPs in the watershed, and the efficiency of different BMPs in mitigating urban runoff under different climate regimes.

Installations of BMPs are expensive, and each BMPs often has a life span of a few decades. In the face of scarce resources and impending climate change, we need a better knowledge of the effectiveness of BMPs under different climatic regimes. The results of this study will help us to identify the most appropriate and adequate BMP designs that are most cost-effective not only for the current but also for future use.

UC presenters:

Rong Fan, University of Cincinnati

Susanna Tong, University of Cincinnati

Yu Sun, University of Cincinnati

COMTEMPORARY SPATIO-TEMPORAL FLUCTUATIONS IN CHINESE AIRPORT HIERARCHIES

The Chinese air transportation system has developed rapidly since the Reform and Opening policy in the late 1970s. After more than 20 years of development, the number of airports has increased significantly. However, the top hierarchy of Chinese air transportation network remains relatively constant, "Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou-Shenzhen constitute the backbone of the Chinese air transportation network."  This research focuses on two aspects of the Chinese air transportation network. The first examines changes in the hierarchical air network, and the second is concerned with the hub and spoke systems. The period of analysis is 2001 to 2010. The results show that the hierarchical network has changed over the period of this analysis. Smaller urban places have emerged as important parts of the air network with important implications to the Chinese hub and spoke system.

UC presenter:

Kunlei Ma, University of Cincinnati